Sully’s Oscar Predictions

I could very easily write a second blog called “Sully Oscars” but I’m spending a wee too much time writing THIS blog to do a second one.

But I do want my predictions in writing and out there for all my readers to see.

I like the 10 picture nomination change. It gives the Oscars a better cross section of the movies of the year.

This is an interesting Oscar year. A lot of years you have heard people whining that there aren’t enough mainstream hits being nominated (blame the studios for not making enough Oscar worthy films.) But this year with films like Black Swan, The Fighter, True Grit and The King’s Speech, you see a lot of Oscar bait have become big money makers even before the Awards are handed out.

Mix them up with some mainstream hits like Inception and Toy Story 3 and indie fare like The Kids are Alright and Winter’s Bone and you have a pretty interesting line up.

(And of course there is the obligatory “Man who cuts his damn arm off” movie in 127 Hours.)

All that being said, Toy Story 3 is still the best movie of the year… but who is counting?

Here are my predictions.
These are not the films I think SHOULD win but what I predict WILL win.

Let’s see how I do:

BEST PICTURE – The King’s Speech
BEST DIRECTOR – Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
BEST ACTOR – Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
BEST ACTRESS – Natalie Portman – Black Swan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Christian Bale – The Fighter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – David Seidler – The King’s Speech
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – Toy Story 3
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Biutiful

BEST ART DIRECTION – The King’s Speech
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – True Grit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN – The King’s Speech
BEST EDITING – The Social Network
BEST MAKE UP – The Wolfman
BEST MUSIC SCORE – The Social Network
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – “We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3
BEST SOUND – Inception
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING – Inception
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – Inception

And yup, I make the Documentary and the Short Film predictions as well.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – Inside Job
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – Killing in the Name
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM – The Gruffalo
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM – Wish 143

I know a lot of people think the awards will be split between The Social Network and The King’s Speech, but I think the praise for The Social Network peaked. And I think The King’s Speech will rampage for 7 Oscars and even have the upsets in the Director and Supporting Actress category. (Helena Bonham Carter has been an incredibly respected actress for a long time without a golden boy on her mantle. I think she’ll get one over Melissa Leo, who was awesome in The Fighter.)

And I think the brilliant Roger Deakins will win Best Cinematography.
You may not notice that award or know his name… but he was responsible for the photography in The Shawshank Redemption, Kundun, A Beautiful Mind and Revolutionary Road… all amazingly well shot movies.

And oh yeah, he has shot every Coen Brothers film since Barton Fink.

That would include Fargo, The Big Lebowski, O Brother Where Art Thou?, The Man Who Wasn’t There, No Country for Old Men and this year’s True Grit.

You are hard pressed to find a better body of work than that!

Either way, I am going to enjoy the Oscars. I always do.
And as I do every year, enjoy my AMC Oscar segments.

Let’s see how I did on my Oscar predictions…

Watching the Oscar nominations this morning, I saw that some of my predictions were spot on. Others… not so much.

Let’s check my work.

BEST PICTURE – 10 for 10. Not bad. Now I have to rent Winter’s Bone.

BEST DIRECTOR – 4 out of 5. I thought Christopher Nolan would be nominated for director after being snubbed for The Dark Knight. They went with Lily Tomlin’s best friend, David O. Russell and The Fighter.

BEST ACTOR – 4 out of 5. Javier Bardem was nominated for Biutiful (sic) instead of Mark Wahlberg. Don’t dispair Mark, you got nominated as a producer for The Fighter.
BEST ACTRESS – 5 for 5. YES! Granted, I’ve only seen Black Swan of the group, but I predicted it alright.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – 4 out of 5. John Hawkes from Winter’s Bone gets to put “Oscar Nominee” on his resume. I thought Andrew Garfield would ride a Social Network wave. I was wrong.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – 4 out of 5. I am stunned Mila Kunis wasn’t nominated for Black Swan. Jacki Weaver got it for Animal Kingdon. For the record I think it is moronic that Hailee Steinfeld is in the “supporting” category. She was the main character of the movie! But I am glad she was nominated. She deserves it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – 4 out of 5 – No Black Swan! Interesting. Someone explain to me how Mike Leigh, a guy who prides himself on NOT writing a screenplay, just got his FIFTH “Best Screenplay” nomination. I should go to every coffee shop in Los Angeles where writers are slaving over a script and nudge them and say “Just have the actors make up the words.”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – 4 out of 5. I am super glad Toy Story 3 got the love it deserves. No love for Ben Affleck and the screenplay for The Town? It had the hilarious line about Jack Clark ripping off the Red Sox, which made it Oscar worthy in MY book.

So of the so called “Major nominations” I got 87% correct.

My other predictions…
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – Well, I got all 3 right… except I thought there were going to be 5 nominees. So too bad Despicable Me and Tangled. DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – 1 for 5. WHOOPS! (No Waiting for Superman?) ART DIRECTION – 4 out of 5 CINEMATOGRAPHY – 4 out of 5 COSTUME DESIGN – 3 out of 5 EDITING – 4 out of 5 SOUND – 3 out of 5 SOUND EDITING – 2 out of 3 (Actually 5 nominations. I thought there were 3) VISUAL EFFECTS – 3 out of 5 MUSIC SCORE – 3 out of 5 ORIGINAL SONG – 3 out of 5

So overall my nomination predictions were 75% accurate.
Not bad.

OK, I have a month to see these nominations. I’ve seen 6 of the Best Picture nominations and I have two that I haven’t seen gathering dust as DVDs. There’s no baseball game on tonight, so better get watching them!

It is time for my OTHER obsession… the Oscars.

Yup, I need to take a quick pause from talking baseball to feed my other beast: I am an Oscars addict. Now I promise I won’t turn this blog into Sully: Oscars, but each year I need to make my predictions for the big show.

So here are my picks for the nominations that will be announced tomorrow morning.
Note that these AREN’T the films that I think should necessarily win.
These are the films that I think WILL be nominated.

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are Alright
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan – Inception

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter

Best Actress
Annette Bening – The Kids are Alright
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids are Alright
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are Alright
The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3

Best Documentary Feature
Client 9
Inside Job
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
Who is Harry Nilsson?

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Best Cinematography
Inception
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
127 Hours
The King’s Speech

Best Sound
Black Swan
Inception
127 Hours
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Sound Effects Editing
Inception
127 Hours
TRON: Legacy

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Inception
The Social Network
TRON: Legacy

Best Music Score
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Original Song
“I See the Light” – Tangled
“If I Rise” – 127 Hours
“Shine” – Waiting for Superman
“We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3
“You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me Yet” – Burlesque

I am predicting that the Academy will not nominate David O. Russell… perhaps the clash with Lily Tomlin on Youtube would still be on their minds. And I think that the DVD release of Winter’s Bone will make it the surprise Best Picture nomination.

And while The Town will get shutout of the big prize, Ben Affleck will get another writing nomination.

And I am also predicting some serious distribution of wealth amongst the nominations.
I see both The King’s Speech and True Grit getting double digit nominations with 10.

Black Swan, Inception and The Social Network should all get 9 nominations.

That’s 5 films with a pile of nominations.
And with 8 nominations for 127 Hours and 7 for The Fighter the possibility of another upset is strong. (Remember how The Hurt Locker upset the blockbuster Avatar last year?)

Alrighty. Get some sleep. Tomorrow is nomination day and always a big day in my insane calendar.